Don’t look now, but the Houston Astros are just 3.5 games out of first place in the AL West, taking nine of their last 10 games heading into Monday’s matinee matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto still sits in last in the AL East, and it could be a team that is active at the trade deadline as a seller if things don’t turn around soon.
Despite being just one game over .500, Houston has the sixth-best run differential in the American League, and it is climbing with the Astros playing some of their best ball of the season.
Houston took two out of three games from the Jays earlier this season, outscoring them 19-2 over the course of the series. That’s not good news for the Jays, who come into this game as home underdogs.
Let’s dive into the odds, probable pitchers and a best bet for the first of just three matchups in Major League Baseball on Monday.
Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
Astros -1.5 (+114)Blue Jays +1.5 (-135)
Moneyline
Astros: -135Blue Jays: +114
Total
9 (Over +100/Under -120)
Astros vs. Blue Jays Probable PitchersHouston: Hunter Brown (5-5, 4.37 ERA)Toronto: Yariel Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94 ERA)Astros vs. Blue Jays How to WatchDate: Monday, July 1Time: 3:07 p.m. ESTVenue: Rogers CentreHow to watch (TV): AFN, AT&T SportsNet SouthwestAstros record: 42-41Blue Jays record: 38-45Astros vs. Blue Jays Key Players to WatchHouston Astros
Yordan Alvarez: June was a great month for the Houston slugger, as he hit .349 with seven homers, eight doubles and 19 runs batted in. Alvarez has pushed his season slash line to .294/.371/.520, and he should tee off on a struggling pitcher like Rodriguez on Monday afternoon.
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: A candidate to be moved at the trade deadline, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. certainly has held up his end of the bargain for the Jays in 2024. The slugging first baseman is hitting .297 with 13 homers and 50 runs batted in, posting an OPS+ of 141 this season. While the Toronto offense has not been as good as it would have hoped, Vladdy Jr. has been a bright spot all of 2024.
Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
There’s no doubt that the Astros are the better team right now, and they actually have a massive edge on the mound with Hunter Brown’s recent performance.
The young right-hander posted a 1.16 ERA and 2.97 Fielding Independent Pitching across five starts in the month of June, leading the Astros to a 4-1 record in those outings. Brown has not allowed more than three earned runs in a single outing dating all the way back to May 22.
Jays starter Yariel Rodriguez has been on a much different path, allowing at least three runs in each of his last three outings, pushing his ERA from 2.35 to 5.94 in the process. In his last start, Rodriguez was chased after just 1.1 innings of work, as he allowed five runs to the Cleveland Guardians.
Toronto is still 3-2 in his five outings this season, but I have a feeling that doesn’t hold on on Monday. The Blue Jays likely will have to use a lot of their bullpen tonight since Rodriguez hasn’t pitched more than four innings in a single outing in 2024.
That’s an issue, as the Jays rank 28th in Major League Baseball in bullpen ERA (4.74) this season.
With Brown running hot on the mound and the Astros playing their best baseball of the season, I can’t help but take them as road favorites on Monday.